Solana price has begun to consolidate in a tightening range and if the wider market remains stable, it’s possible that SOL could break out in the short-term.
SOL’s upside potential in the short-term could be significant with the move itself occurring quickly. The 2022 Volume Profile between $53 and $90 is extremely thin, indicating that any daily close above $53 would easily move towards the next high volume node in the $90 value area.
In addition, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the all-time high to the July 26, 2021 weekly low and the 2022 Volume Point of Control also exist in the $90 price zone.
SOL/USDT Daily Chart (Binance) Source: TradingViewBulls traders should anticipate some resistance for SOL price near the Kijun-Sen and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near the $70 price range. However, given how thin the Volume Profile is, that resistance may be short-lived.
Historicals suggest sells may struggle to pin SOL under $50
Downside pressure remains a concern but is likely limited in size and scope. The triangle pattern on the daily chart shows bulls have made another attempt to push SOL up and out, but have so far been rejected from spending any meaningful time above the upper trendline.
SOL/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart (Binance) Source: TradingViewIf a bearish breakout below the triangle does occur, bulls will understandably panic, but bears shouldn’t be overly confident. Despite the 2022 Volume Profile being thin below the $39 price level, the 2021 indicator also shows considerable participation between $41 and $48.
Another fast sell-off toward $39 is likely to occur if SOL closes the daily candlestick at or below $49.
Time cycles indicate a change in trend may begin soon
Solana price action is poised for a substantial bullish bounce from a time cycle perspective. In Gann Analysis, one of the most powerful time cycles is the 180-day cycle (extending to 198 days). Gann indicated that any instrument trending in a single direction over 180 days has a high probability of generating a powerful corrective move or a major trend change.
SOL/USDT Daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Chart (Binance) Source: TradingViewToday (May 23, 2022) is the 196th day from the all-time high made on November 8, 2021.
Complimenting Gann’s 180-day cycle is an event within the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo system: a Kumo Twist. A Kumo Twist is the time period when Senkou Span A crosses Senkou Span B. Additionally, the Cloud changing color can be observed. Kumo Twists have a high probability of identifying when a new swing low/high may occur.
Macroeconomic data will continue to weigh on crypto
Solana and the broader crypto market remain at the mercy of the stock market. While the stock market has mounted a modest recovery during the May 23 session, all four major indices are in or near bear market territory.
For example, the RUSSELL 200 (IWM) is down -27%, the NASDAQ (NDX) by -28% and the S&P 500 (SPY) hit bear market territory on Friday, May 20, 2022, but it crawled out of it today. Still, the index remains close to bear market conditions at -17%. Only the DOW has remained out of bear market territory.
Volatility is expected to be exceptionally high this week as well. New home sales data comes out on May 24, durable goods on May 25, GDP growth rate on May 26, and personal spending and income (MoM) on May 27.
Expect any bearish or bullish price action in the stock market to be mirrored by the cryptocurrency market.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
