Bitcoin (BTC) could still crash to $29,000 and lower, but price action is "healthier" than a week ago, the latest research concludes.
In a fresh market update on Friday, analysts at trading suite Decentrader said that BTC price action is finally showing "green shoots of optimism."
Eyes on "near-term relief bounce" for BTC
After a difficult week in which BTC/USD dipped to just under $33,000, market analysis is now focusing on the likely outcomes of the rangebound behavior seen over the past few days.
For Decentrader, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic now where there was none a week ago.
"We believe that the current derivatives landscape shift and this extremely negative sentiment backdrop does increase the potential for at least a near-term relief bounce," analysts summarized.
The reason lies in factors which had previously not fully "reset" as price action declined, notably the structure of derivatives markets. These include open interest declining towards less speculative levels, along with deepending negative funding rates.
As Cointelegraph explained, negative rates correspond to overall market sentiment calling for fresh losses — often perfect conditions for an upward price shift.
"We are now also beginning to see meaningful buyers step in, which is driving a potential change in the higher time frame trend from bearish to bullish," the market update added about the additional positive pressure on the available BTC supply.
Selling overall, while uncharacteristic of bull markets, hints that those behind it are taking losses.
Bitcoin futures open interest chart. Source: Coinglass$29,000 and under seen as less likely
Going forward, the outlook for support is a bounce zone at $29,650, something which would itself only come into play should several other areas above $30,000 fail to hold.
Related: Bitcoin ‘enters value zone’ as BTC price floor metric goes green again
To the upside, meanwhile, resistance lies between $38,850 and $39,700, Decentrader says, followed by a significant "empty" patch to $47,900 and then $53,400.
"Support remains for now at $32,700 though there is some argument to suggest that price reached that level with Monday’s wick falling just $300 short of it," the update reads.
"Beyond that level, the next support is just shy of $30k, at $29,650 leaving the door open for a potential sub-$30K liquidity grab."Sentiment, in line with funding, continues to stay in "extreme fear," as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, this now rivalling the 2018 bear market trough and the March 2020 Coronavirus crash in terms of record-breaking length.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
